The Southwest Monsoon is expected to make its official onset over Kerala within the next 24 hours, according to the latest update issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on June 3, 2026. Weather conditions have become highly favorable for the monsoon advancement into Kerala and nearby regions, marking a significant transition from pre monsoon thunderstorms to the beginning of India primary rainy season. The latest forecast indicates active weather conditions across multiple regions of the country. While southern states are preparing for heavy to very heavy rainfall, several western and northern regions are expected to experience thunderstorms, lightning activity, and gusty winds. At the same time, parts of eastern India continue to remain under heatwave conditions. This weather development is important not only for daily life and transportation but also for agriculture, water resources, and economic activity across the country.
Southwest Monsoon Likely to Reach Kerala Soon
According to the latest IMD assessment, atmospheric and oceanic conditions have become favorable for the immediate advance of the Southwest Monsoon into Kerala. The weather system is also expected to progress into parts of the Arabian Sea, Lakshadweep, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and the Bay of Bengal. The expected onset marks the official beginning of the monsoon season over the Indian mainland. The arrival of the monsoon is usually accompanied by widespread rainfall, increased cloud cover, stronger winds, and a noticeable change in weather patterns across southern India. For residents of Kerala and neighboring regions, the coming days are likely to bring continuous rainfall and changing weather conditions as the monsoon establishes itself.
Heavy Rainfall Alerts Issued for Southern States
One of the most significant updates from the latest weather bulletin is the issuance of orange and red alerts for parts of southern India.
| State | Rainfall Range | Duration | Alert Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kerala | 7 cm to 20 cm | June 3 to June 9 | Orange and Red Warnings |
| Coastal Karnataka | Heavy downpours | During monsoon onset | Alert active |
| South Interior Karnataka | Heavy downpours | During monsoon onset | Alert active |
| Tamil Nadu | Heavy downpours | During monsoon onset | Alert active |
Such rainfall levels could result in localized flooding, waterlogging, and disruptions to daily activities in vulnerable areas.
Mumbai and Maharashtra Experience Active Weather Conditions
Even before the official monsoon arrival, parts of Maharashtra have already experienced significant weather activity. Mumbai and nearby coastal districts witnessed heavy pre monsoon showers and severe thunderstorms during the early hours of June 3.
The Regional Meteorological Centre has placed several districts under a yellow alert.
| District | Alert Status | Expected Conditions |
|---|---|---|
| Mumbai | Yellow Alert | Lightning, gusty winds, intermittent rainfall |
| Thane | Yellow Alert | Lightning, gusty winds, intermittent rainfall |
| Palghar | Yellow Alert | Lightning, gusty winds, intermittent rainfall |
| Ratnagiri | Yellow Alert | Lightning, gusty winds, intermittent rainfall |
| Sindhudurg | Yellow Alert | Lightning, gusty winds, intermittent rainfall |
Thunderstorm Warning for Gujarat Including Surat
Weather activity is not limited to the southern states. Gujarat is also expected to experience active thunderstorm conditions.
- A thunderstorm and lightning warning has been issued for South Gujarat, Surat region, Saurashtra, and Kutch
- Wind speeds of 40 to 50 kmph gusty winds expected
- Light to moderate rainfall with thunderstorm activity
The combination of strong winds and rainfall may affect transportation and outdoor activities in affected districts. Residents are advised to remain alert during periods of thunderstorm activity.
North and Central India to Witness Storm Activity
Several parts of North and Central India are expected to experience changing weather conditions over the coming days.
| Region | Expected Conditions |
|---|---|
| Northwest India | Moderate to severe thunderstorms, gusty winds 40-50 kmph |
| Central India | Moderate to severe thunderstorms, gusty winds 40-50 kmph |
| East India | Moderate to severe thunderstorms, gusty winds 40-50 kmph |
| Delhi, Haryana, Western Uttar Pradesh | Light rainfall, dust storms, thunder squalls, temporary temperature drop |
The arrival of storm systems may bring short term relief from high temperatures in many northern regions.
Heatwave Conditions Continue in Eastern India
While several states prepare for rainfall, eastern India continues to face intense heat conditions. According to the forecast, heatwave conditions are expected to continue across Bihar from June 3 to June 7. The persistence of high temperatures highlights the contrasting weather patterns currently affecting different parts of the country. While southern India moves into the rainy season, eastern regions continue to experience dry and hot conditions.
North India Expected to Cool Slightly
Weather systems moving across northern India are expected to provide some temperature relief. Regions including Delhi and nearby areas may experience a temperature reduction of 2°C to 4°C, improved weather comfort, increased cloud cover, and rainfall related cooling. This change is expected between June 4 and June 6 as thunderstorm activity becomes more widespread.
Long Range Monsoon Outlook for 2026
Beyond the immediate rainfall forecasts, the seasonal outlook provides insight into how the broader monsoon season may unfold.
| Parameter | Forecast |
|---|---|
| June to September rainfall | 90% of Long Period Average (LPA) – below normal |
| June rainfall | Below 92% of normal average |
| Possible El Niño influence | May develop during monsoon period |
Potential concerns include agricultural challenges, reduced rainfall distribution, reservoir replenishment concerns, and delayed monsoon progress.
What to Expect in the Next 24 to 48 Hours
The next two days are expected to be particularly important for weather developments across the country.
- Official Monsoon Onset: The Southwest Monsoon is expected to officially enter Kerala and parts of Tamil Nadu
- Intense Coastal Rainfall: Heavy to very heavy rainfall (7 cm to 20 cm) expected across Kerala, Coastal Karnataka, and Goa
- Urban Thunderstorms: Mumbai, Thane, and Surat may experience thunderstorms, lightning, gusty winds up to 50 kmph, localized waterlogging, and traffic disruptions
- Northern Plains: Delhi, Punjab, Haryana, and Western Uttar Pradesh may see dark cloud cover, light rain, dust storms, and temperature reductions
- Persistent Heat: Bihar and Jharkhand expected to continue experiencing extreme heat
What to Expect for the Rest of June
The broader outlook for June suggests a mixed weather pattern across the country. The progression of the monsoon into central and northern India may be slower than usual, primarily linked to the possibility of developing El Niño conditions. Most states are expected to receive rainfall below the normal average during June. Rain fed agricultural regions may need to prepare for delayed sowing schedules, slower moisture buildup, and adjustments to crop planning.
Conclusion
India is entering a crucial phase of the 2026 weather season as the Southwest Monsoon prepares to officially arrive over Kerala within the next 24 hours. The latest IMD forecast highlights heavy rainfall risks across Kerala, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu, while Maharashtra, Mumbai, Gujarat, and parts of North India are expected to experience thunderstorms and gusty winds. At the same time, heatwave conditions continue in Bihar, creating contrasting weather scenarios across the country. Looking ahead, the seasonal outlook suggests below normal rainfall and a potentially slower monsoon progression influenced by developing El Niño conditions. The coming days will be critical in shaping the early trajectory of the 2026 monsoon season.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q1. When is the Southwest Monsoon expected to arrive in Kerala in 2026?
A1. According to the IMD, the Southwest Monsoon is expected to make its official onset over Kerala within the next 24 hours from June 3, 2026.
Q2. How much rainfall is expected in Kerala during the first week of June?
A2. Kerala is expected to receive isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall ranging from 7 cm to 20 cm between June 3 and June 9, with orange and red alerts issued.
Q3. Which regions are under yellow alert due to thunderstorms?
A3. Mumbai, Thane, Palghar, Ratnagiri, and Sindhudurg in Maharashtra are under yellow alert for lightning, gusty winds, and intermittent rainfall.
Q4. What is the long range monsoon forecast for June to September 2026?
A4. The seasonal rainfall is projected to be 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), which is below normal. June rainfall is expected to be below 92% of normal.
Q5. How will El Niño affect the 2026 monsoon season?
A5. El Niño conditions may develop during the monsoon period, potentially causing agricultural challenges, reduced rainfall distribution, reservoir replenishment concerns, and slower monsoon progression.